As the countdown begins for the Jammu and Kashmir assembly election results 2024, the Union Territory is set to have an elected government after more than six years since the PDP-BJP coalition government collapsed in June 2018.

Amidst multi-tier security at all district headquarters, officials will begin counting votes from postal ballots, reserved for security personnel and others at 8 am, followed by votes from electronic voting machines (EVMs). The process is expected to conclude by 6pm.

Jammu and Kashmir’s first assembly elections since 2014 unfolded in three phases. The initial phase held on September 18 saw voting for 24 seats, followed by the second phase on September 25, covering 26 seats.

The third and final phase, with polling for the remaining 40 seats took place on October 1.

Polling in the region remained peaceful with no untoward incidents reported, unlike in past elections where violence was witnessed. The Union Territory saw a voter turnout of 63.45 percent, slightly lower than the 65.52 percent recorded in the 2014 assembly elections.

Among the major political parties, the Bhartiya Janata Party fielded 62 candidates, with 43 in the Jammu region and 19 in Kashmir. The party allocated tickets to eight candidates from 16 assembly seats in South Kashmir, six from 15 in Central Kashmir, and five from 16 in North Kashmir.

Meanwhile, the Congress and the National Conference finalised a seat-sharing agreement for the polls, with the Congress contesting 33 seats and the National Conference fielding candidates in 52 constituencies.

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The two parties also engaged in a “friendly fight” for the remaining five seats, with one seat each allocated to the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti and part of the INDIA bloc, decided to contest the elections independently without forming any pre-poll alliances.

What did exit polls predict for the final results in J&K?

Exit polls have predicted that the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance would have an advantage over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the region.

CVoter projected the BJP was expected to get 27-32 seats out of 43 in the Jammu region while NC-Congress 11-15, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 0-2, others 0-1.

In Kashmir, the NC-Congress was expected to get 29-33 seats out of 47, BJP 0-1, PDP 6-10, and others 6-10. The NC-Congress was overall projected to get 40-48 out of 90 seats, BJP 27-32, PDP 6-12, and others 6-11. A party or an alliance needs 46 seats to form the government.

What are the key constituency battles to watch?

Among the key contests is Gandebral, where Omar Abdullah of the National Conference is running against Independent candidate Sarjan Ahmad Wagay. In Bijbehara, Iltija Mufti of the PDP has been fielded.

Sopore features Aijaz Ahmad Guroo, brother of Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru, who is contesting as an Independent. In Channapora, Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari from the JKAP is in the race. Baramulla sees Muzaffar Hussain Baig contesting as an Independent.

Kupwara has Sajad Lone from the People’s Conference, while Handwara also has Sajad Lone from the People’s Conference, along with Chaudhary Mohammad Ramzan.

In Nagrota, Devendra Singh Rana represents the BJP, and in Central Shalteng, Tariq Hameed Karra from the INC is a candidate.

How did J&K end up without an elected government?

Jammu and Kashmir has been without an elected government since June 2018 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) broke its alliance with the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), forcing Mehbooba Mufti to resign as chief minister.

The state was then headed by governor Satya Pal Malik, who dissolved the J&K Legislative Assembly on November 28, 2018, shortly after Mehbooba Mufti staked her claim to form a government with the support of the Congress and the National Conference (NC).

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However, on December 19, 2018, then President of India, Ram Nath Kovind, issued a notification announcing President’s Rule in J&K under Article 356 of the Constitution of India.

Eight months later, on August 5, 2019, the BJP-led government at the Centre repealed Article 370, providing special status to J&K, and bifurcated the erstwhile state into Union Territories.

After that, only the Block Development Council (BDC) elections were held, even though political parties demanded that assembly elections be conducted.

On December 11, 2023 , the Supreme Court while upholding the abrogation of Article 370, directed the Central government to hold elections in Jammu and Kashmir by September 30, 2024, and to restore statehood at the earliest.

What next for the new government in J&K

After forming the government, the new administration in Jammu and Kashmir will face several challenges, as many powers will rest with the Lieutenant Governor.

However, the concerns of the people regarding local representation are expected to be gradually addressed. This time, the elections have focused on basic issues such as essential amenities, power supply, ration distribution, electricity, roads, and water.

The results will also reveal whether the residents of Jammu and Kashmir align with the BJP’s vision of progress and security, or if local challenges take precedence over broader national narratives.

A robust performance by the BJP would support Modi’s approach and strengthen his reputation as a leader who fulfills his commitments.

In contrast, a lackluster outcome could empower detractors, both within the country and abroad, who contend that the changes have not provided the promised benefits to the people of Jammu and Kashmir.