Southwest monsoon likely to arrive in Kerala over the next 4-5 days: IMD

The southwest monsoon is likely to make its onset over Kerala during the next four to five days, much earlier than the usual date of June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

If the monsoon arrives in Kerala before time, it will be the earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it began on May 23, according to IMD data. The weather department had earlier forecast the onset by May 27.

“Conditions are also likely to become favourable for further advancement of southwest monsoon over some more parts of South Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area, some parts of Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, some more parts South and Central Bay of Bengal, Northeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of northeastern states during the same period,” the IMD said.

HT had earlier reported that the month of May saw unusual weather across India, marked by frequent thunder and dust storms and below normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country. However, experts are convinced that this anomaly will not affect the onset of the southwest monsoon.

One important factor for a normal monsoon over the country is formation of a so-called ‘heat low’ over Northwest India. This creates a trough of low pressure that sucks moist air from the monsoon trough. In its absence, the monsoon may be deficient. At present, there is no ‘heat low’, but the IMD and independent scientists have said monsoon will arrive before its normal arrival date.

An upper air cyclonic circulation is likely to form over east-central Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast around May 21. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region around May 22. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwards and intensify further, the IMD said on Tuesday.