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“A night watchman of the BJP!” That’s how former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda repeatedly referred to Nayab Singh Saini as the newly minted Haryana chief minister arrived in assembly to prove majority in the 90-member House on March 13, 2024.
The Congress’ strongman from the Jat bastion of Rohtak was not off the mark. Three days later, Lok Sabha elections were announced and the model code of conduct lasted 80 days, bringing governance to a grinding halt.
In between his elevation as CM on March 12 and yet another election code of conduct coming into force on August 16 with the announcement of Haryana assembly elections, Saini, who also remained state BJP president till July 9, got just 77 days to run the government without poll code restrictions.
During this short window, the Saini-led minority government took a slew of please-all populist decisions almost daily in a bid to blunt the anti-incumbency of two continuous terms of the BJP and attempt to soften public mood.
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A few contentious and unilateral decisions taken by then CM Manohar Lal Khattar were reversed or tweaked to send out a message loud and clear that the government was on a course-correction spree.
BJP’s gambit to bring in Saini, who hails from Backward Classes (BC) that account for 34% of the Haryana population, was aimed to counter anti-incumbency, deflect voters’ fatigue, and what political pundits term “BJP’s desperation to further consolidate the anti-Jat vote.”
Lok Sabha polls a wake-up call
But the Lok Sabha election verdict was a wake-up call even though the BJP won five out of 10 seats and secured lead in 44 assembly segments against Congress getting lead in 42 assembly seats and its ally AAP (now contesting separately) secured lead in four seats.
The result was a jolt for Saini because in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana after registering leads in 79 assembly segments. But five months later in the October 21, 2019 assembly polls, BJP won 40 seats and fell short of six MLAs to cross the magical halfway mark.
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In this backdrop, the Lok Sabha verdict had set the alarms bells ringing within the BJP which continues to grapple with sulking cadre, internal divisions, different factions within the party and people unhappy with MLAs and their arrogant hangers on.
“I have been barely getting four hours’ sleep after becoming CM. I am awake till past midnight and start meeting public at dawn,” said Saini at a recent informal meeting with reporters, indicating how he was burning the mid-night oil to contain the anti-BJP tide.
BJP leaders concede that post-Lok Sabha verdict, the government woke up to ground realities. Corrective steps were taken to solve problems people were facing from Parivar Pehchan Patra (PPP) and Property IDs, the twin flagship schemes that also fuelled public anger.
“Public is unhappy with the sitting BJP MLAs and not with the party. BJP cadre is not coming out because they were ignored by the local MLAs,” says a senior BJP leader.
The strong anti-incumbency, voters’ fatigue, disillusioned youth and angry farmers continue to be a ticking time bomb despite BJP breaking alliance with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and replacing Manohar Lal Khattar as CM.
The tough stance of Khattar during his stint, beginning October 26, 2014, to handle even delicate issues and his penchant for launching web portals to stamp out corruption did not go down well with the public, including the BJP cadre.
“BJP is in a crisis in Haryana. Its only hope is Jat versus non-Jat consolidation that is shaping up,” says a senior journalist, who now works for BJP and RSS.
While Khattar’s aggressive approach led to anger in public, BJP has been presenting Saini as a docile and affable BC leader with an eye on non-Jat electoral consolidation.
Pins hope on non-Jat votes
Political watchers say apart from 30% Jats and 34% BCs of Haryana, Dalits are 16%, and 23% are Punjabi, Brahmin, Rajputs and Aggarwal; while Ahir, Gujjar and Saini are around 11% in Haryana. BJP’s worry is consolidation of Jats and Dalits in favour of Congress.
Saini is the first Backward Class leader to become chief minister of Haryana.
Haryana watcher Satish Tyagi says that BJP is hoping against hope that all the non-Jat communities of Haryana will line up behind it to keep Jats away from power. If this happens, removing Khattar and appointing Saini will turn out to be a game changer.
“Don’t take BJP lightly even though an impression is gaining ground that Congress is going to form the government. A lot will depend on the ticketing strategy of the BJP as the Modi factor has waned in Haryana. The 17 reserve seats will play a crucial role in deciding which party forms the government,” says Tyagi, pointing out that government jobs on merit, social security pension and welfare schemes targeting about 48 lakh BPL families will be the trump card of the BJP.
The contest appears to be bipolar between the BJP and the Congress on account of marginalisation of regional parties like JJP and INLD.
As caste plays a crucial role in Haryana politics, under the watch will be BJP’s strategy to navigate this politically complex landscape as the party’s support base is largely non-Jat.
The BJP’s efforts to woo Jat voters have seen mixed results, and the party risks alienating its core non-Jat support base if it shifts its strategy too much.
All eyes are now on the aces BJP will pull and the quality of candidates it will field as cool-headed “night watchman” Saini navigates choppy, caste-driven waters of Haryana to bring ashore the BJP ship.
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